Owen Farrell, The Symbol Of England’s Limited Upside
England have started this 6 Nations with somewhat of a whimper. Losses to their two closest neighbours in Wales and Scotland has caused criticism of the setup and the players. One of the major criticisms has been around the form of Owen Farrell and his selection having played no club rugby since the start of the season. But England’s and Owen Farrell’s problems might go deeper than that.
The bluntness of England’s attack has certainly raised eyebrows. Looking at how the 6 nations teams have performed against each other since the world cup, England rank 4th in points scored per game. Considering England’s attacking talent this should definitely be criticised whilst being 4.7 points per game worse than France.
When Owen Farrell came into the England set up he seemed like a prototypical English 10 and the natural successor to Wilkinson. A good tactical kicker and goal kicker who can defend in the line well. But the image of the prototypical fly half is changing. Much like Quarterbacks in the NFL, there is now an increased emphasis on athleticism and mobility.
In my opinion the best fly half in the world is Richie Mo’unga. Not just because he can throw incisive passes putting players into gaps and a wonderful attacking kicking game, but because he has the athleticism to beat a defender from 1st receiver and run support lines after a break is made. This is something that Owen Farrell simply can’t really do, but there are others who can.
And waiting in the wings is a fly half with an aggressive attacking kicking game, dynamic passing and an ability to break the line like few other in world rugby in Marcus Smith who is having an outstanding season and many people are pleading their case as to why he should be included in the England squad. But it’s not just Smith, George Ford and Jacob Umaga have the ability to beat men and make breaks too.
This may not seem like much but having that ability means the defence have to plan for it and not get caught in a bad match up at 1st receiver. But it also means they can’t drift away too early or blitz too hard with a fly half that can just go around them if they do. And the defensive timidness can create space in outside channels too.
Farrell’s lack of line breaking ability becomes exacerbated at 12. Not only has a ball got to go an extra pass for an outside threat compressing the space, but easier for a defenders to ignore him as a running threat. And maybe Farrell was enough of a running threat at the start of Jones’ tenure when Farrell was 24. But age has an effect on players athleticism and a decline in speed and quickness comes usually around 27 or 28. Farrell is now 29, he will be 32 at the time of the next world cup. It’s very possible things only decline from here.
There of course other ways for a fly half to be successful in attack. Finn Russell isn’t necessarily the greater runner from the position, but he gets into the best ten in the world argument for his vision and ability to create space for others. Although hard to make an argument without statistics of line break assists and attacking kicks successfully collected, the eye test would indicate that this is an area that Farrell isn’t necessarily as good as those he’s competing against.
Pundits and fans alike rate Owen Farrell as an elite goal kicker, the problem with this is statistically he isn’t. According to Goal kicker plus rankings out of 52 kickers in the premiership with over 50 kicks since 2015,Owen Farrell ranks 25th. He is statistically average with only a value added of 1. Which means off of 100 kicks he will only score one point more than the average kicker. In Marcus Smith’s career he only has a value added of 2, but this also includes his seasons as a teenager and progressions is expected. This season he has a value added of 32 and ranks 2nd only behind Priestland.
So using Farrell’s goal kicking as an argument falls down as to And with Farrell’s particularly poor performance with the boot in the Autumn Nations cup final the idea that he will be clutch in big games doesn’t necessarily hold weight either.
And when you have Henry Slade, one of the best touch kickers in the world from penalties and George Ford who is a good tactical kicker in his own right and statistically a better goal kicker, the role of Farrell when England have possession starts to look a bit redundant. There are obviously more intangible factors like leadership and squad morale that are hard for us outside observers to fully understand, but I struggle to believe the other 14 impressive young men on the pitch are inadequate leaders that make Farrell indispensable.
So the only real reason to pick Farrell is his defence which is good with a physicality on the gain line. And although Smith and Ford both have a higher tackle percentage this might be in part due to Farrell’s aggressive style trying to make good hits rather than just bring the runner to ground.
But this seems to be England’s problem in a nutshell, it’s not about maximising their potential upside, but nullifying the opposition. Even against Georgia, England picked 3 second rows to stop the Georgian pack. Eddie Jones was scared enough of Georgia to neuter his team’s own attacking potential. AGAINST GEORGIA!!!
There is value in a good defence certainly, but England haven’t even had a defence truly superior to every other six nations team with England ranking 2nd behind Scotland in points conceded per game since the world cup and only 6 points better off than Ireland. And even with a fly half who isn’t necessarily an elite defender there are always ways to cover this up tactically whether it be fly halves defending further out in the centre or wing channels, dropping them back to full back to then kick from deep or launch a counter, or even put them in the scrum.
England seem obsessed with winning games by tight margins, something that is unsustainable and won’t get them to a good place when playing elite teams who maximise their talents. I think it is reasonable to be slightly concerned about England remaining stagnant which doesn’t seem good enough with the level of talent England have at their disposal.
By Benjamin Sutton
Follow me on twitter @bensuttonjackal
